中国影子银行体系对金融稳定性影响的实证分析
An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Shadow Banking System on Financial Stability in China

把我国影子银行体系分为三个子系统，从功能的角度对我国影子银行体系进行界定和估算，根据金融稳定的内涵从金融机构平稳运行、金融市场平稳运行、金融市场抵御外来冲击的能力和资产价格平稳四个方面用主成分分析法构建金融稳定性指数，并用FGLS模型实证分析我国影子银行体系对金融稳定性的影响，发现我国影子银行体系对金融稳定性有显著的影响，但是有滞后期，影子银行体系的风险不容忽视。
The shadow banking system in China is divided into three subsystems in this paper and then the definition and scale estimation of the shadow banking system in China is given from the angle of function.We build a financial stability index from four aspects：smooth operation of financial institutions and financial markets，ability against external shocks of financial markets and asset prices stability.Finally we use FGLS model to analyze the impact of Chinas shadow banking system on financial stability，and found that Chinas shadow banking system has a significant impact on financial stability，but there is a lag period，and the risk of the shadow banking system can not be ignored.