海上丝绸之路上港口与港口城市的互动发展机制研究
Research of Interactive Relationship between Port Development and Urban Economic Development Based on the Key Port City of Maritime Silk Road

利用格兰杰因果检验、Johansen协整检验和面板数据回归模型，考量海上丝绸之路上港口物流与港口城市经济的动态关系以及相互作用机制。结果显示：港口物流与港口城市经济之间存在长期的稳定关系，港口货物吞吐量和集装箱吞吐量与港口城市经济发展之间存在着双向因果关系，货物吞吐量对港口城市经济的贡献度大于集装箱吞吐量对港口城市经济的贡献度，港口城市经济对货物吞吐量的方差贡献度大于港口城市经济对集装箱吞吐量的方差贡献度。结果表明，发展和促进重点港口城市经济发展与港口物流发展，符合“21世纪海上丝绸之路”的战略目标。
This paper used Granger causality test, Johansen Cointegration and panel data regression model to analyze the dynamic interaction mechanism between the port development and urban economic development-based on the key port city of Maritime Silk Road. The results show a long-term and stable relationship between the port logistics and port city economy; there exists a bi-directional causality between the port logistics cargo throughput and container throughput of the port city and economic; the contribution of cargo throughput of the port city to its economy is greater than that of the container throughput; the contribution of the economy of the port city to the variance of the cargo throughput is greater than that of container throughput. The research findings show that the economic development and the port logistics development of key port city serve the strategy of "21st century maritime silk road".