供需平衡视角下城乡居保保障水平研究——以长沙市为例
A Study of Security Levels of Urban and Rural Residents’ Endowment Insurance System on Supply and Demand Balance——Taking Changsha for Example

以长沙市为例，运用2010-2015年的数据，一方面从需求角度基于ELES模型测算了城乡居保的养老金适度下限水平，并作出未来15年的动态预测；另一方面从供给角度基于精算模型模拟出养老金供给水平。将二者比较，发现：2010-2030年长沙市城乡居保制度在理论上不能达到“保基本”的制度目标。改革模拟结果表明：在引入个人缴费增长率和缴费补贴增长率参数，逐步调高基金收益率和基础养老金调整系数的假定下，到2030年可实现不同层次的“保基本”目标。因此，可建立与收入水平挂钩的费率机制、提高基金收益率、建立合理的基础养老金调整机制、完善缴费补贴机制来提高城乡居保的保障水平。
This paper taking Changsha for example and using data from 2010 to 2013, on one hand measures the moderate pension lower limit of urban and rural residents’ endowment Insurance system (URREIS) based on ELES model from demand perspective and forecast it for the next 15 years, on the other hand measures pension supply level on actuarial mode from supply perspective. By comparing the two pension benefits, we find that the pension level that URREISprovides theoretically can’t guarantee the elders’ basic living from 2013 to 2030. Reform simulation result shows that under the condition of introducing payment growth rate and payment subsidy growth rate parameter, and increasing fund returns and basis pension adjustment coefficient progressively, the URREIS can achieve the goal of guaranteeing the elders’ basic living at different levels in 2030. This paper suggests establishing payment rate mechanism linked income level, increasing fund returns, building a reasonable basis pension adjustment mechanism and improving the payment subsidy mechanism to improve security level of URREIS.