政府机构数量增长的宏观影响因素研究——基于1998年—2015年31个省级面板数据的分析
An Empirical Study on the Factors Influencing Macro from China’s Government Agencies Growth Based on the Provincial Panel Data from 1998 to 2015

各地政府机构数量增长受到多种宏观因素的影响和制约。通过对1998年—2015年31个省级区域内机关法人单位的面板数据分析，得出研究结论：第一，经济增长、转移支付、对外开放与政府机构数量增长具有负相关关系。第二，城镇化、财政支出、财政分权与政府机构数量增长具有正相关关系。单纯用瓦格纳法则、“粘蝇纸效应”等西方理论解释中国政府机构数量增长，是不成立的。第三，人口增长与政府机构数量增长之间具有负相关关系，两者存在规模经济。
The increase of government agencies in various regions is affected by a variety of macroeconomic factors.Through the analysis of the panel data in the 31 provinces from 1998 to 2015，the empirical conclusions are drawn：economic growths，transfer payments，opening up have a negative correlation with the number of government agencies.Second，urbanization，fiscal expenditure，fiscal decentralization has a positive correlation with the growth of government institutions.This means that it is invalid to explain the growth of China’s government agencies by Western theories such as Wagner's Law and the "Sticky Paper Effect".Third，there is a negative correlation between population growth and the growth of government institutions，which has scale economies effect.