河北省育龄妇女生育水平变化及未来人口预测*
Change of women's fertility level and future population forecast in Hebei Province

目的:根据河北省第3～6次人口普查资料,对河北省育龄妇女生育水平变化进行分析并对未来人口进行预测。方法:使用河北省育龄妇女的年龄别生育率及一般生育率差别分解法分析妇女生育水平变化,并用人口移算法对未来几年人口进行预测。结果:2010年河北省的总和生育率为0.130%; 1981～2010年河北省育龄妇女一般生育率下降主要由妇女年龄别生育率变化引起; 预测2015、 2020和2025年河北省总人口数分别为74 361 021、75 215 416和74 942 574。结论:河北省已经进入极低生育率水平,并将在2025年出现人口负增长。
Aim: To analyze the change of women's fertility level and forecast the future population based on the data from the third to the sixth demographic census in Hebei Province.Methods: The age-specific fertility rate of women and the different decomposition method were used to explain the change of women's fertility level in Hebei Province and population-shift algorithm was used to predict the future population size.Results: The total fertility was 0.130% in 2010 and the decline of general fertility from 1981 to 2010 mainly arose from the change of women's age-specific fertility rate. The sum of population predicted by population-shift algorithm would reach 74 361 021 in 2015,75 215 416 in 2020, and 74 942 574 in 2025, respectively.Conclusion: Women's fertility level has been reached extremely low fertility and there may be negative increase in 2025 in Hebei Province