基于ARIMA-ERNN组合模型预测我国甲肝发病率*
Forecasting incidence of hepatitis A based on ARIMA-ERNN combination model in China

目的:比较ARIMA模型、BPNN模型和ARIMA-ERNN组合模型在我国甲肝发病率预测中的应用效果,探讨预测甲肝发病率的优化模型。方法:收集2004年1月至2015年12月我国甲肝发病率资料,用SPSS 17.0和Eviews 8.0建立ARIMA模型,用Matlab 8.0建立BPNN模型和ARIMA-ERNN组合模型,并对模型的预测效果进行评价。结果:ARIMA-ERNN组合模型拟合及预测的MRE、MER、MSE、RMSE、MAE均小于ARIMA模型和BPNN模型,其MRE均小于5%。结论:ARIMA-ERNN组合模型对我国甲肝发病率的拟合及预测效果优于ARIMA模型和BPNN模型。
Aim: To compare the effect of ARIMA model, BPNN model and ARIMA-ERNN combination model in prediction on incidence of hepatitis A in China, and compare the predictive effect among them.Methods: The data of incidence of hepatitis A from January 2004 to December 2015 in China were collected and SPSS 17.0 and Eviews 8.0 were used to construct ARIMA model, Matlab 8.0 was used to establish BPNN model and ARIMA-ERNN combination model. At the same time, the data in 2015 was used to evaluate the effect of prediction.Results: The MRE, MER, MSE,RMSE,MAE fitted and forecasted by ARIMA-ERNN combination model were lower than those of ARIMA model and BPNN model,and the MRE was lower than 5%.Conclusion: The ARIMA-ERNN combination model for forecasting the incidence of hepatitis A is superior to the single ARIMA model and BPNN model