基于我国失能老人生存状况分析的 养老照护体系框架研究
Exploring the System of Disabled Elderly Care Service: An Analytical Study on the Living Condition of the Disabled Elderly in China

针对中国失能老人的养老服务问题，对三省（直辖市）九市（区）共4 582户城乡居民家庭、60个社区（村）、38个养老机构进行了调查；根据调查测算， 2015-2020年，中国失能老人数量将从2 444.42万人增加到3 848.54万人，平均每年递增9.50%；其中重度失能老人从599.33万人增加到969.44万人，平均每年递增10.10%；期间，以货币为计量单位的失能老人对机构养老服务的需求规模从27.29-59.36亿元增加到44.46-96.70亿元；居家养老服务需求规模从223.21-485.23亿元增长到363.46-790.46亿元；指出中国失能老人生存与照护面临护理人员供给短缺、子女照料缺失、老伴照料艰辛、社区养老服务形式化、养老机构服务欠温存等方面的问题；提出了构建有中国特色失能老人照护体系，确保失能老人的生存质量、生命尊严以及养老照护的诉求等建议。
The issue on disabled elderly care service has aroused considerable concern from many social sectors in China. From 2013 to 2015, a series of surveys were carried out on 4582 urban and rural households, 60 communities (villages) and 38 pension institutions in 9 cities from 3 provinces. Projections were made that from 2015 to 2020, the number of the disabled elderly will increase from 24.44 million to 38.49 million, with an average annual increase rate of 9.5 percent while the number of the severely disabled elderly will increase from 5.99 million to 9.69 million, with an average annual increase rate of 10.1 percent. Taking the currency as measurement unit, the scale of disabled elderly demand for institutional care service will increase from 2.72-5.93 billion to 4.44-9.67 billion Yuan while demand for home-based care service will increase from 22.32-48.52 billion to 36.34-79.04 billion Yuan. At present, the survival and care of the disabled elderly is faced with five main problems, including shortage of professional nurses, lack of adult-children support, stressful burdens on caregiving spouses, inefficient community-based care service and unkind pension institutions. Thus, five proposals are proposed accordingly on the construction of the disabled elderly care system with Chinese characteristics