上市公司会计舞弊风险指数构建及预警研究
Research on the Construction and Warning of Accounting Fraud Risk Index of China Listed Companies

为了前瞻性地把握上市公司会计舞弊风险的整体分布情况，警示投资风险。基于对上市公司会计舞弊手法的分析，提炼得到30个会计舞弊风险识别指标，以2014年中国沪深A股通用设备制造业上市公司为样本，构建了上市公司会计舞弊风险指数。结果表明，上市公司在会计舞弊问题上并非泾渭分明地分为两类，而是呈现渐次变化的连续分布。这一发现突破了以往研究对会计舞弊问题二分类的简单划分，意味着上市公司普遍面临不同程度的会计舞弊风险。通过指数的持续发布可以实现对上市公司会计舞弊的监督和预警，防微杜渐。通过监测指数的各项指标得分可以对舞弊风险进行具体识别，有助于投资者更加准确地评估潜在风险。
In order to grasp the overall distribution of listed companies′ financial fraud risk prospectively and to warn the investment risk, based on 30 indicators obtained from the accounting fraud tricks, the accounting fraud risk index of China listed companiesis is built. The sample was selected from the general equipment manufacturing industry on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange in 2014. The result shows that the companies present a continuous distribution which changes little by little in terms of accounting fraud, and they can′t be divided into two categories so clearly as the previews studies have shown. This discovery indicates that the listed companies are generally faced with the risk of accounting fraud to some extent. The index can be published continuously to monitor and warn the accounting fraud earlier so that the listed companies can check erroneous ideas at the outset. Besides, by monitoring the indicators′ scores, the investor can estimate the fraud risk specifically, and assess the potential investment risk more accurately