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- 2017
易地移民搬迁对家庭劳动力外出务工活动的影响机制 ――来自陕南地区的证据
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Abstract:
基于农户模型和新迁移经济学的相关理论分析，以陕南移民搬迁为例，利用入户调查数据，采用概率模型分析易地移民搬迁对农户参与外出务工的影响，之后利用倾向得分匹配法深入分析了作用机制；结果发现：外出务工成为搬迁农户生计活动的重要表征，易地移民搬迁对农户外出务工的影响较为复杂，两者相互作用；外出务工对农户参与移民搬迁项目起到促进作用，而参与移民搬迁项目后，由于本地非农就业的机会被挤占而导致外出务工活动更受当地农户倚重；同时，移民搬迁对搬迁农户外出务工的影响并非体现在促进新的家庭参与到外出务工活动当中，而是通过影响搬迁农户对家庭内部外出务工策略的调整来提高汇款收入，从而规避次生贫困风险以实现在安置地的生计可持续发展。
Based on the Household Model and theory of New Economics of Labor Migration, taking the relocation in South of Shaanxi Province, this paper first adopts the Logit model to analyze the influence of the relocation policy initiating in South Shaanxi Province on rural households′ out migration by employing the household survey data. Then it examines the mechanism of relocation on migration strategy using Propensity Score Matching method. The results found that, the out migration is an important and significant phenomenon among the resettled households. There are mutual impacts between relocation and out migration. Out migration enable the households to participating in the relocation program and resettled households relied more on out migration as an important income source. However, the policy doesn′t stimulate more households participating in the out migration. But the policy contributes to increasing remittances by adjusting their migration strategy getting so that the households involved can avoid poverty and their livelihood can kept sustainably
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