房价冲击对金融稳定性的非对称作用机制
The Asymmetric Mechanism of Housing Price Impact on Financial Stability

基于FAVAR模型全视角分析了房价上升、下降对金融稳定性的冲击作用，结果显示二者影响不一，作用机制存在非对称性。具体表现为：房价上升短期内弱化金融脆弱性，长期强化金融稳态，风险传导不明显；房价下降则强烈破坏金融稳定性，风险滋长和暴露异常迅速，通过短期利率渠道向货币市场传导机制显著。无论房价上升或下降，房价冲击均与股市波动此消彼长，但房价下降对股市波动影响更强烈。因此，中国房价宏观调控需审慎推进，严防风险爆发。
This paper analyzes the impact of housing price impact on financial stability based on FAVAR model from a full view. Results show that the rising and falling of housing price play different impacts, and the mechanism is asymmetric. Specifically: the rising of housing price weakens financial vulnerability in short term, and strengthens the financial stability in long term, risk conduction is not obvious. When housing price fall down, financial stability was deteriorated strongly, risk grow rapidly, and the channel through short-term interest rate to monetary market conducts significantly. Whether housing price rising or falling, stock market always relates to the housing price, but the falling of housing price impact more intensely. Therefore, China needs to supervise finance and prevent risk by using a steady coordination and targeted form