产业发展是否推动了中国的城市蔓延？ ――基于35个大中城市面板数据的实证检
Has the Industrial Development Promoted Urban Sprawl? ―An Empirical Study based on the Panel Data of 35 Large and Medium-Sized Cities in China

城市经济增长和城市化进程离不开产业发展，不同类型产业的发展也影响着城市空间形态的变化。在分析不同类型产业发展影响城市蔓延一般机理的基础上，以2004-2014年中国35个大中城市为样本，构建计量经济模型，实证检验了不同类型产业发展对城市蔓延的具体影响。研究结果表明：（1）总体上看，工业和服务业显著地推动了城市蔓延，而农业则显著地抑制了城市蔓延；（2）从区域维度看，不同区域中对城市蔓延起主要推动作用的产业类型不同；（3）从时间维度看，2008年金融危机之后，工业和农业对城市蔓延的影响逐渐削弱，服务业逐渐成为了城市蔓延的主要推动力。根据研究结论，提出了相应的政策建议。
Urban economic growth and urbanization process can′t be separated from urban industrial development, and at the same time, industrial development also makes an impact on urban spatial form. This paper made a theoretical analysis of the mechanism of urban industrial development promoting urban sprawl by using the data of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China during 2004-2014 as samples, and established an econometric model to test the influences of different types of industrial development on city sprawl empirically. The results show that: (1) Generally, industry development and service industry development have significant effects on urban sprawl, while agriculture development significantly restrains the sprawl. (2) From the view of region, the types of industry which play major roles in promoting urban sprawl are different in different regions. (3)From the view of time, after the financial crisis in 2008, industry and agriculture development′s impacts on urban sprawl are decreasing, while service industry development gradually becomes the major driving force of China′s urban sprawl. At last, several policy implications are briefly put forward