农村社会养老保险的长寿风险评估与应对策略
A Study on the Evaluation and Countermeasures of Longevity Risk in Rural Social Endowment Insurance

随着老龄化、高龄化进程加剧，农村人口预期寿命持续延长，农村社会养老保险制度面临长寿风险的严峻挑战，基金不可持续性显著增强。为此，以制度分析为逻辑起点，识别农村养老保险政策设计中的长寿风险；根据消费与储蓄的生命周期假说理论，分析农村长寿风险产生机制和影响机理；利用随机死亡率预测方法和生命表技术，评估农村社会养老保险长寿风险，分析两者关系，提出应对策略。研究发现：农村社会养老保险制度长寿风险主要来源于个人账户；长寿风险从产品定价、资产负债、利源影响农村养老金个人账户收支平衡；2012-2041年农村人口平均预期寿命从77岁增长至83岁，养老金个人账户长寿风险突出；应对策略包括优化制度设计、强化参保人责任、引入市场机制等。
With the acceleration of aging and the extension of life expectancy of rural population, Rural Endowment Insurance System is facing the severe challenge of longevity risk and the fund would not be sustainable. This paper takes the system analysis as the logic starting point, and identifies the longevity risk in the design of rural social endowment insurance policy, and analyzes the producing and influencing mechanism of rural longevity risk based on the life cycle hypothesis of consumption and savings. On this basis, the paper evaluates the longevity risk in Rural Social Endowment Insurance System and analyzes the relationship between them by using the forecasting methods of random mortality and techniques of Life Table, and finally puts forward the countermeasures. The research results show that longevity risk of Rural Social Endowment Insurance System is mainly from individual account, and it influences the individual account balance from product pricing, assets and liabilities, profit resources. The average life expectancy of rural population will go up from 77 years old to 83 years old from 2012 to 2041, so the longevity risk is very serious. The coping strategies include optimizing the system design, strengthening the responsibility of the insured, and introducing the market mechanisms, etc