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- 2017
理解中国货币政策调控模式:“稳杠杆”还是“降杠杆”? ――基于TVP-VAR模型的实证研究
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Abstract:
采用时变参数向量自回归(TVP？？VAR)模型对宏观杠杆率、经济增长与货币政策之间的动态关联机制进行实证研究。结果显示,当前阶段较高的宏观杠杆率水平以及过快的杠杆率增速都会阻滞经济的正常增长;而货币政策在“降杠杆”与“稳杠杆”中存在冲突,紧缩性的货币政策会小幅提高杠杆率而不利于“降杠杆”,但其也能够显著降低杠杆率波动水平而有利于“稳杠杆”。因此,政府应当在“降杠杆”与“稳杠杆”中有所权衡。当前阶段应该保持中性偏紧的货币政策环境,确保短期内抑制杠杆率过快的上涨势头,同时全面推进供给侧结构性改革,促进经济长期增长来逐步消化高杠杆。
This paper focused on the dynamic correlation between macroeconomic leverage, economic growth and monetary policy by using a Time？？Varying Parameter Vector Auto Regression (TVP-VAR) model. The results showed that the high leverage rate and excessive leverage growth would be a drag on economic growth at the current stage. And tight monetary policy would slightly increase leverage and was not conducive to reducing leverage, but also could significantly reduce the volatility of leverage and was conducive to the stability of leverage. Therefore, the government should make trade？？off between the ″reducing leverage″ and ″stablizing leverage″. At the current stage, the government should maintain a neutral tight monetary policy environment to ensure the suppression of excessive rising of leverage in the short term, and comprehensively promote the supply side structural reforms to promote long？？term economic growth so as to gradually digest the high leverage
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