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- 2017
人口老龄化、技术创新与经济增长 ――基于要素禀赋结构转变的视角
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Abstract:
利用中国1997―2014年的省际面板数据模型,对人口老龄化是否会通过要素禀赋结构转变对经济增长产生技术创新效应进行了实证检验。结果发现:老龄化对技术创新和经济增长具有显著的促进作用,老龄化提高了劳动生产率,促进了经济增长向劳动节约型技术进步转型;老龄化通过“资本-劳动”要素结构改善和人力资本要素质量提升两种途径推动了技术创新。但是老龄化对技术创新的影响具有显著的人力资本异质性,具有丰富工作经验和高等教育程度下的老龄化对创新和经济增长的作用显著为正,而仅具有初等教育和中等教育程度下的老龄化会显著地阻碍创新;技术创新对技能劳动力的内在筛选机制促进了人力资本向高级化发展,进而对技术创新产生了正向反馈机制。在老龄化日益加深的背景下,持续优化要素禀赋结构,加快高等教育和技术培训从而提高技术创新能力是促进经济增长的根本措施。
This paper tests empirically whether aging can produce technological innovation effect on economic growth through structural changes of factor endowment by using the provincial panel data model of China from 1997 to 2014. The results show that population aging plays a significant role in terms of promoting technological innovation and economic growth. Aging increases labor productivity, and promotes the transformation of economic growth to labor saving technological progress; Aging promotes technological innovation through the improvement of ″capital？？labor″ factor structure and quality improvement of human capital factors. However, the impact of aging on technological innovation has significant heterogeneity of human capital, population aging with rich working experience and tertiary education has a positive effect on innovation and economic growth, but the aging which has only primary and secondary education will hamper innovation significantly; The internal screening mechanism of technological innovation to skilled labor force promotes the development of human capital to a higher level, And then the technology innovation has a positive feedback mechanism. Therefore, in the context of increasing aging, it is the fundamental measure to promote the economic growth by constantly optimizing the structure of factor endowments, speeding up tertiary education and technical training, thereby enhancing technological innovation capability
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