西安市2010-2015年空气污染对出生缺陷影响的时间序列分析
Time-series analysis of air pollution and birth defects during 2010 to 2015 in Xi’an

摘要：目的 研究西安市空气污染物二氧化硫(SO2)、二氧化氮(NO2)和PM10对出生缺陷的影响。方法 从西安市妇幼保健院获得西安市2010-2015年出生缺陷监测资料，从西安市环境监测站获得同期空气污染资料，从西安市气象站获得同期气象监测资料，采用广义相加模型控制长期趋势、季节、气温和相对湿度影响，探讨空气污染物与出生缺陷的相关性。结果 研究期间西安市月平均出生缺陷达89例；SO2、NO2、PM10月平均密度分别是34.05、45.13、96.77μg/m3；月平均温度为13.57℃；相对湿度为63.20%。在广义相加泊松回归模型(GAM)中，空气污染物SO2、NO2、PM10与出生缺陷有关且有一定的滞后效应，均在临产前10月的效应达到最大值，各污染物密度每增加10μg/m3，RR(95% CI)分别为：1.060(1.023～1.097)、1.033(1.014～1.052)和1.018(1.007～1.029)，且差异均具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论 西安市空气污染物SO2、NO2、PM10与出生缺陷的发生相关。
ABSTRACT: Objective?? To study the effects of air pollution including sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and PM10 in Xi’an on birth defects. Methods? ?We collected the birth defects data from Xi’an Maternal and Child Health Hospital, meteorological data from Xi’an Bureau of Meteorology, and the air pollution data from Xi’an Environment Monitoring Station from 2010 to 2015. Generalized additive model (GAM) was used to explore the relationship between air pollution and birth defects after adjusting the effects of long-term and seasonal trend, temperature, and relative humidity. Results? The monthly average birth defects were 89 cases; the monthly average concentration of SO2, NO2 and PM10 ?was 34.05μg/m3, 45.13μg/m3, and 96.77μg/m3, respectively. In the GAM, the monthly average temperature was 13.57℃ and the relative humidity was 63.20%. The three kinds of air pollutants all had a certain lag effect in 10 months, which reached the maximum. With an increase of concentration by 10μg/m？？3 in three air pollutants, the relative risks and confidence interval of SO2, NO2, and PM10 were 1.060 (1.023-1.097), 1.033 (1.014-1.052) and 1.018 (1.007-1.029), with significant differences (P<0.05). Conclusion? ?Exposure to SO2, NO2, and PM10 may be associated with the risk of birth defects