从路径角度看中国OEM企业升级的技术策略——基于演化博弈分析
Technologicalstrategy in path evolution of Chinese OEM upgrading:Based on evolutionary game method

OEM企业转型升级是中国实现产业结构调整、提高经济质量的内在要求。OEM企业应当合理制定技术升级策略,为技术能力的提高打下基础。技术变迁具有路径演化特征,原有技术为企业带来稳定收益但面临路径"锁定"风险;具有更高增值的新技术长期来看会奠定企业的竞争优势,但其研发商业化的时机及其与原技术的初始关系决定着两类技术的路径演化形态。文章以路径依赖、路径创造理论为基础,运用演化博弈方法,观察原技术面临潜在或现实路径锁定威胁、原技术与新技术互补或相斥等情境下,两类技术的路径演化形态,进一步丰富路径理论的实践应用,为OEM企业升级过程中的技术策略制定提供理论参考。
OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturing) upgrading is the inherent requirement for realizing China's industrial restructuring and economic quality enhancement. OEMs should make reasonable technological upgrading strategies to improve technology capacity. Technological change has the properties of path evolution. The existing technology in OEMs provides steady revenue while it has the risk of path "lock-in". The new technology will bring higher incremental value and establish a beachhead for future competition. However, the time for developing new technology and the relationship between new technology and the existing one determine the development of path evolution. Based on path dependence and path creation theory, this paper uses the method of evolutionary game to construct models, contributing to the practical application of path evolution and providing suggestions for OEM enterprises' upgrading. Specifically, this paper observes the development of path evolution under the potential or realistic risk of path "lock-in" of existing technology, as well as the complementary and contradictive relationship between new technology and existing technology.