中国营业税改征增值税试点政策实施效果研究
A Case Study on Implementation Effects of the Pilot Policy for Substituting the Value-added Tax for Business Tax in China

文章采用案例研究方法,从交通运输业入手讨论营业税改征增值税试点的实施效果。采用事件研究法研究营改增对交通运输企业股价波动的影响机制,并分析企业税负的变化,为营改增在全国范围内推广及完善提出相应建议。结果表明：(1)营改增试点的公布影响了上海市交通运输企业的股票收益,政策发布前后股票具有正价格效应,但各子行业股价波动程度不一。由于“板块效应”的存在,营改增也引起非试点范围内同行业样本组企业股价一定正向波动。(2)整体上看,营改增有效减轻了交通运输业的税收负担,但由于地域限制和进项税抵扣不充分等也导致小部分企业税负暂时增加。
This paper adopts the case study method to analyze the implementation effects of the reform pilot policy from the transportation industry to start. This paper applies the event study method to study the influence mechanism of the tax reform pilot policy on stock yield of the transportation industry. Meanwhile, it calculates and researches the changes of the tax burden of these enterprises, and provides suggestions for the promotion of the reform policy in nationwide. Results indicate: 1) The announcement of the reform pilot policy affects the stock returns of the transportation industry in Shanghai. In a period of time before and after the publish of the policy, the stock of the pilot enterprises has positive effect on price, the stock price of each subindustries fluctuates differently. Because of the “plate effect”, the reform policy also causes the stock price of the enterprises fluctuates positively which is beyond the pilot scope to some extent. 2) In general, the tax reform policy effectively reduces the tax burden of the transportation industry in Shanghai, but the existence of the area restrictions and the input taxes aren’t fully deduct factors result in the temporary increase of the tax burden of a fraction of the transportation industries.