不同国家城市化中期阶段与碳排放关系研究
Comparative Study of Relationship between Carbon Emission and Medium-term Urbanization in Different Countries

城市化中期是城市化率30%~70%的阶段。文章通过比较世界主要发达国家与中国，发现城市化中期的年碳排放量与年人均碳排放量将继续保持上升态势。虽然各国的增长速度存在较大差异，但所有对象均不会在城市化中期出现碳排放的峰值，碳排放下降拐点的出现应在城市化后期。再通过格兰杰因果检验，证明各国在碳排放总量与城市化之间未必存在因果关系，但人均碳排放与城市化之间基本存在因果关系。
The medium-term urbanization stage means the urbanization rate between 30% to 70%.Comparing with the world’s major developed countries and China during this stage, the annual carbon emissions and carbon emissions per capita will keep rising trend, but national growth rate has huge difference. The peak of carbon emissions will not appear in stage of medium-term urbanization, but in its maturity period. The results based on Granger Causality Test show that co-relation Granger causality between urbanization rate and carbon emission may not exist in all countries, but which between carbon emissions per capita and urbanization rate exists.