中国商品出口市场的有效组合
The efficient mixes of China’s commodity export markets

出口企业之间的协调失灵是一国出口波动的原因之一，因此政府需要采取必要的干预措施。为了降低出口收入增长率的波动水平，可以借鉴Markowitz模型的方法，同时使用相对方差衡量波动风险并构建出口市场组合模型。根据该模型和2000-2012年的中国商品出口数据，可以计算中国商品出口市场的有效组合。研究结果表明：中国应该大幅度地增加对亚洲其他市场(亚洲15经济体以外的地区)、非洲和拉丁美洲的出口份额，并且，这种调整方向在理论上和实践上均具有可行性。
Export fluctuations are partly the result of coordination failure, some government intervention may be necessary. By borrowing the modern portfolio theory for selecting optimal export markets mix and better measuring export risks, this paper argues that it is theoretically feasible to propose a new index named relative variance as an alternative to variance and construct a model of export markets mix. According to this model and the data on China’s export, we calculate the efficient mixes of China’s export markets, which indicate that China should increase exports share from the rest of Asia (outside the 15 Asian economies), Africa and Latin America. And this adjustment is feasible both in theory and practice.