地中海实蝇入侵中国的风险评估
Invasion risk assessment of the Mediterranean fruit fly Ceratitis capitata into China

地中海实蝇Ceratitis capitata（Weidemann）是全球分布范围最广、为害最大的害虫之一。为评估地中海实蝇入侵中国风险并制定针对性的检疫措施，基于其在全球的分布数据，选取与其发生相关的温度、湿度等7个变量，利用MaxEnt模型预测其适生区，并结合我国进境口岸截获数据及寄主分布情况评估其入侵风险。结果显示，地中海实蝇在全球的适生区范围主要集中在热带、亚热带地区，在我国的适生区范围主要集中在南部地区。该虫在越南、老挝、缅甸、印度、不丹和尼泊尔等我国邻国多地适生，且在我国进境口岸每年也均有截获，2003-2015年共截获274批次；其主要寄主苹果、咖啡、榅桲和花果在我国的适生区范围内种植面积及产量均较高。因此中国具备了该虫进入、定殖的适生条件，具有较高的扩散风险。为预防其入侵，需完善边境疫情监测体系，加强进境口岸管理力度，并制定科学管理措施以降低其进入、定殖及扩散的风险。
The Mediterranean fruit fly,Ceratitis capitata(Weidemann),is one of most widespread and damaging pests in the world.The study was carried out to assess its invasion risk and formulate specific quarantine measures in China.Seven variables including temperature and humidity were selected for the ecological niche model.MaxEnt model was employed to simulate potential geographical distribution of C.capitata based on its global distribution and to evaluate its invasion risk according to its quantity intercepted and captured in ports and the distribution of its hosts.The results showed that the suitable distribution areas of C.capitata were mainly in tropical and subtropical regions around the world.Suitable distribution area of C.capitata in China was mainly in the southern region.Neighboring countries of China,including Vietnam,Laos,Burma,India,Bhutan and Nepal,are suitable for the colonization of C.capitata.The pest was intercepted every year and total intercepted times were 274 in 2003-2015.Its major hosts,including Malus pumila Mill.,coffee,Cydonia oblonga Mill and Ficus carica L.,were widely planted in suitable distribution areas.Therefore,the pest has ability to be introduced and spread in China.Corresponding quarantine and surveillance measures should be taken to prevent invasion risk of C.capitata.