贫困脆弱性视角下参与式社区综合发展的精准“防贫”效应分析
Analysis on the Targeted Poverty Prevention Effect of the Participatory and Comprehensive Community Development from the Perspective of Poverty Vulnerability

利用贵州省纳雍县两个贫困行政村跨期十数年的农户追踪调查数据，从贫困脆弱性视角量化分析、评价不同时期参与式社区综合发展的“防贫”效应及其精准性。结果表明，欠发达地区农户的贫困脆弱性在1999-2011年期间降幅巨大（约下降99%），抗风险冲击能力得到极大提升。总体上，参与式社区综合发展的“防贫”即期效应显著，可使农户贫困脆弱性指数降低5个百分点以上，然其“防贫”时滞效应却并不突出。分不同群体考察，参与式社区综合发展“防贫”虽存在一定“漏出效应”和“溢出效应”，但包容性较强、瞄准精度尚可，能惠及大多数“重度脆弱户”和“中度、轻度脆弱户”；换言之，除“微度脆弱户”、“极度脆弱户”及部分“重度脆弱户”外，其间各贫困脆弱组农户均能从中得到保障，然贫困脆弱性强度越高，所受保障程度愈小。不仅如此，参与式社区综合发展此种“防贫”的精准度可持续性差，明显时滞效应。
Based on the survey data traced over a decade of rural households from two poor villages of Nayong County in Guizhou Province, this paper empirically analyses the “poverty prevention” effect and its precision of participatory and comprehensive community development in different periods from the perspective of poverty vulnerability. The results indicated that farmers’ poverty vulnerability dramatically decreased (about 99 percent) from 1999 to 2011, while their anti-risk capability greatly promoted. On the whole, the spot poverty prevention effect of participatory and comprehensive community development is significant, which shall reduce farmers’ poverty vulnerability index by over 5 points, but its time-lag effect is not really obvious. Given various groups, although the poverty prevention of participatory and comprehensive community development results in some “leakage effect” and “overflow effect”, it is somewhat inclusive and precise, which means it can benefit most of the “severe vulnerable households” and “medium and mild vulnerable households”. In other words, except for “micro vulnerable households”, “extreme vulnerable households” and some of “severe vulnerable households”, the other groups of poverty-vulnerability households shall obtain benefits from the participatory and comprehensive community development, and with stronger poverty vulnerability, the less benefits acquired. In addition, the precision of that “poverty prevention” effect is unable to sustain a long period, showing no significant time-lag effect.