汶川地震后贫困村儿童的发展：灾害影响与异地安置的作用
Children’s Development in Poor Villages after the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake: the Impact of Damage and the Effects of Relocation

自然灾害会依严重程度对事件经历者的心理产生重大影响，异地安置是自然灾害发生后较为普遍的干预措施，大部分已有研究表明异地安置对受灾者灾后身心具有负面影响。本文利用2009年2月对汶川地震受灾地区随机抽样所抽取的10个地震受灾县的100个贫困村庄的3000户家庭的抽样调查数据，在通过GIS工具变量回归有效控制地震灾害损害影响的基础上，估计了地震灾害以及灾后异地安置对儿童心理和学业的影响。结果表明，地震损害中的学校损毁程度（相对于家庭住房和成员伤亡）对儿童心理的消极影响最大，同时也影响儿童的灾后入学率；在控制灾害损害影响的条件下，学校的县内异地安置对儿童心理具有积极影响，学校的县外异地安置则有助于提高灾后儿童学业表现，而家庭的长期异地安置对灾后的入学率和学业表现都具有显著的积极影响。这些结果并不支持多数已有研究所得出的异地安置具有负面影响的结论,也为自然灾害的灾后应对措施的设计提供参考依据。
Natural disasters can have negative impact on victims’ mental state in accordance with the severity of the event. Though regarded as one of the most common relief measures after disasters, it has always been proofed that relocation has adverse psychiatric effects on victims. By the analysis on the self-weighting sample survey data which is finally made up of 3000 households from 100 poor villages in 10 earthquake stricken counties, this paper carefully controls the effects of earthquake damages so as to estimate the influence of earthquake and the effects of relocation after the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake on both physical health and educational attainment of school children. The outcomes show that school damage as one agent variable of earthquake damages exerts the biggest influence on school children’s psychology and enrolment after the earthquake, compared with the effects of home damage and family members’ injury which are the other two agent variables of earthquake damages. Under the premise that earthquake damages are controlled, the school relocation has significant positive effects on children’s psychology and academic performance, though a negative effect on the enrolment. Contrary to the outcomes given by most of existingSstudies, which come to a conclusion that relocation has adverse effects on psychologicalShealth, this paper provides a very different result, that relocation after the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake doesn’t have adverse effects on school children’s post-disaster psychology, but a non-significant positive effect. What’s more, the school relocation helps to enhance children’s enrolment and educational attainment after earthquake.