近50年华北平原冬小麦主要生育期水热时空变化特征分析
Spatiotemporal change characteristics of heat and rainfall during the growth period of winter wheat in North China Plain from 1961 to 2010

利用华北平原49个气象站点的逐日气象数据和24个农业气象试验站的物候期数据,分析了1961—2010年冬小麦营养生长期、并进期、生殖生长期和全生育期的生长度日(Growing degree days,GDD)、高温度日(Killing degree days,KDD)、降水量及其气候倾向率的时空变化特征。研究表明,1)华北平原冬小麦全生育期GDD各省间差异不显著,但其他各生育期各省间空间分布差异显著(P<0.05),华北平原所有地区GDD的气候倾向率均呈正值,高值主要分布在山东东部(莱阳市和烟台市等)、河南东南部(信阳市和固始市等)一带;2)华北平原冬小麦各生育期KDD各省间差异不显著,营养生长期KDD均呈增加趋势,其他时期有增有减,生殖生长期与全生育期KDD倾向率呈现东北与西南正值,其他地区负值的特征;3)华北平原在过去的50年冬小麦各生育期降雨量均呈现由南向北递减特征,营养生长期及全生育期降雨量均呈增加趋势,并进期山东东部地区及生殖生长期河南南部地区呈现降低趋势。因此,过去50年,河北省西部(保定和石家庄等)一带小麦种植极端高温风险较大;山东东北及河南西南一带未来小麦种植极端高温风险较大。华北大部分地区干旱风险呈现降低趋势,山东东部(潍坊市和莱阳市等)在冬小麦并进期,河南南部(南阳市和固始市等)在冬小麦生殖生长期干旱风险呈增加趋势。
Based on the historical meteorological data and phenology data from the meteorological stations and agricultural meteorological experimental stations,this paper studied growing degree days (GDD),killing degree days (KDD),precipitation amount and its climatic trend rate of the seasons at vegetative growth phase,vegetative and reproductive growth phase,reproductive growth phase and whole growth period of winter wheat during 1961 and 2010 in North China Plain.The results showed that GDD among different provinces at whole growth period of winter wheat was not significantly different,but it is significantly different at other growth phases in North China Plain (P<0.05).All the climatic trend rate of GDD was positive value,and the high value of climatic trend rate of GDD was distributed in the area of the east part of Shandong (Laiyang,Yantai,etc.) and the south part of Henan (Xinyang,Gushi,etc.).The KDD among different provinces at different growing periods of winter wheat was not significantly different in North China Plain;the climate trend of KDD was increased at vegetative growth phase,but at other growth phases it was some increased and some decreased.At reproductive growth phase and whole growth period of winter wheat,KDD was increased in the area of northeast and southwest of North China Plain,were decreased in other areas.Over the past few decades,the precipitation during different growth periods of winter wheat decreased from south to north in North China Plain.However,the amount precipitation was increased at vegetative growth phase in all areas,decreased at vegetative and reproductive growth phase in area of east part of Shandong and also decreased at reproductive growth phase in south part of Henan.In conclusion,in the recently fifty years,the risk of extreme high-temperature of winter wheat in west Hebei (Baoding,Shijiazhuang,etc.) was higher;the risk of extreme high-temperature of winter wheat in northeast of Shandong and southwest of Henan was higher in the