中国电商经济发展的消费效应研究*
THE CONSUMPTION EFFECTS OF ECOMMERCE ECONOMY DEVELOPMENT

摘要 本文基于中国2002—2013年的省级面板数据建立了动态面板模型，利用系统广义矩估计方法（SYS—GMM）考察了电商经济发展的消费效应。研究发现：我国电商经济发展显著提高了总体消费规模，促进了跨区域的消费集聚，拉大了城乡消费差距，且这种消费差距效应可以通过扩大城乡收入差距这一机制实现。上述三大消费效应均表现出一定的地区异质性，在中西部地区影响更大。本文系统地考察了电商经济发展的消费效应，尤其体现在消费集聚效应和城乡消费差距效应两个方面。本文的研究结论为新常态下促进消费增长识别到另一条路径——发展电商经济释放消费潜力，为打造区域性电商消费集聚中心提供了经验证据，明确了电商经济收益共享的推进方向，以实现城乡居民消费差距收敛。
Abstract： Using Chinas provincelevel dynamic panel data from 2002 to 2013 and SYSGMM method, this paper empirically analyses the consumption effects of ecommerce economy development. We find that the development of ecommerce economy increases the size of the overall consumption significantly, and promotes the spatial agglomeration of crossregional consumption. Besides, it expands the urbanrural consumption gap. The mechanism is ecommerce economy development widens income gap between the urban and rural residents. The three effects are more obvious in the central and western regions in China. Compared with the previous research, this article more systematically examines the consumption effects of ecommerce economy development, especially consumption pooling effect and consumption gap effect. Conclusion of this paper offers another channel to release the consumption potential on the background of Chinas New Normal. By developing ecommerce economy, it provides empirical evidence for building regional ecommerce consumption cluster center, and indicates the development direction for ecommerce economy, which is to pay more attention to promote a fair share of ecommerce economy earnings between the urban and rural residents in order to narrow the consumption gap.