城镇化和制造业结构升级互动关系研究*——基于挤入挤出效应的考察
STUDY ON THE INTERACTION BETWEEN URBANIZATION AND MANUFACTURE STRUCTURE UPGRADE——Based on Crowd inout Effect

摘要 城镇化与制造业结构升级存在产业关联和资源配置竞争。协调推进城镇化和制造业结构升级，迫切需要识别两者的互动关系。不同于以往的研究思路，本文在对房地产投资、高技术产业投资进行挤入挤出理论分析的基础上，提出了城镇化与制造业产业结构的互动概念框架。基于此，本文采用联立方程实证策略，利用我国2002—2012年面板数据，运用3SLS方法展开分析。研究发现：土地偏向的城镇化进程中，房地产投资对高技术产业投资产生明显挤出效应，对传统产业产生了微弱挤入效应，城镇化对制造业升级有抑制作用；东部地区与全国整体情况一致，而中西部地区的房地产投资对传统产业投资也产生了挤出效应；以高技术投资表征的制造业结构升级微弱地促进了城镇化进程。
Abstract： There are industrial relations and resource allocation competition between urbanization and upgrading of the manufacturing industryIn order to promote urbanization and upgrade of the manufacturing structure，it is urgent to identify the interaction between the twoDifferent from previous research，this paper bases on the theoretical analysis of crowding out effect of real estate investment and hightech industry investment，puts forward the interactive conceptual framework of urbanization and manufacturing industry structureThen the empirical method of simultaneous equations is used to analyze the panel data from 2002 to 2012It is found that: the real estate investment has obvious crowdingout effect on the investment of hightech industry，and has a weak crowdingout effect on the traditional industry，and the urbanization has an inhibitory effect on the upgrading of manufacturing industry; Different from eastern region，in central and western regions，investment of real estate has a crowdingin effect on the traditional industryThe upgrading of the structure of manufacturing industry which is characterized by high technology investment promotes the process of urbanization