稳增长和防风险双底线下的宏观经济*——2016年宏观经济形势分析与2017年预测
MACROECONOMY UNDER THE DUAL BOTTOMLINE OF STABLE GROWTH AND RISK PREVENTION——Chinas Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecast in 2016—2017

摘要 2016年经济呈现出短期底部企稳与泡沫聚集的特点。在潜在增长平台下移、周期性、结构性以及趋势性因素共同作用的背景下，经济下行压力依然巨大，2017年宏观经济仍将持续筑底。而底部运行的深度和持续的长度取决于世界经济复苏程度、中国经济潜在增长水平、新产业新动能培育、房地产周期调整、政治经济周期波动以及对潜在风险的化解与对策等多种因素。与此同时，在“债务—投资”驱动模式下，我国债务规模快速攀升，债务水平已经积累至相当程度，债务的结构性风险突出，尤其是广义政府债务水平超出国际警戒线。而中国经济目前存在的深层次问题本质上大多与债务风险密切相关。比如资产泡沫的聚集，实际上是“债务—投资”驱动模式中投放的大量货币在股市、债市以及房地产等领域的伺机流动。债务风险有可能是引发中国经济爆发危机的关键点。从目前情况来看，中国具备防范危机的实力，但是对于可能引发危机的潜在因素必须重视。一方面，树立正确的危机观，不惧怕危机，建立危机应急机制。另一方面，在债务风险演变至债务危机前，防患于未然，建立风险缓释机制。
Abstract： In 2016, the macroeconomy exhibits the trend of shortterm bottom stabilization and converging bubbles As the potential growth level shifting downward, combined with cyclical, structural, and tendency factors, together they are still causing tremendous downward pressure, and will lead to continuous bottomformation in the upcoming year of 2017 However, the depth and length of bottomformation are related to world economy recovery, growth level of Chinas economy, cultivation of new industries and economy drivers, adjustment of real estate cycles, fluctuations of politicaleconomy cycles, solutions to potential economic risks and many other factors Meanwhile, domestic debt scale has been skyrocketing, driven by the “debtinvestment” driving pattern; this highlights the structural debt risks, as generalized government debt level exceeding the international warning line The fundamental problems of Chinas economy are mostly correlated with debt risks, such as the converging asset bubbles, are actually the currencies allocated by the “debtinvestment” driving pattern, now circulating in the stock, bond, and real estate market; while debt risks may very well be the trigger Chinas economic crisis Judging from current situations, China is capable of preventing crisis, with sufficient attention on factors that may be the causes On one hand, it is critical to establish a correct understanding and coping mechanism of economic crisis; on the other hand, to establish a risk mitigation mechanism before debt risks evolve to crises.