非农就业视角下城镇化对农业机械化的影响*
A STUDY ON THE INFLUENCE OF AGRICULTURAL MECHANIZATION FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF NONAGRICULTURAL EMPLOYMENT

摘要 本文利用我国420个地级市2001—2013年的面板数据，借鉴城乡二元经济理论，研究城镇化对农业机械化的短期作用和动态影响。主要结论有：（1）资源的稀缺性决定了短期内城镇化和农业机械化之间是竞争关系，资源贫乏的中部地区面临着更加矛盾的抉择。（2）从动态来看，中国高速的城镇化进程降低了农业人口密度，农业生产条件的改变促进了农业机械化水平的提高。（3）当经济发展水平提高后，城镇化和农业机械化的短期竞争关系得到缓解，拉动作用减弱。本文的研究结论为更好地理解现行的乡村振兴战略和城镇化战略的关系提供了一个产业互动的视角。
Abstract： This paper used data of 420 prefecturelevel cities in China from 2001 to 2013 and applied urbancountry dual economy theory to study the short run influence and dynamic effect of urbanization on agricultural mechanization. The main conclusions were as follows: (1) In the short run, the relation between urbanization and agricultural mechanization was competitive because of the scarcity of resource. This phenomenon was most obvious in the Chinas Middle Area, where resource is scarce. (2) But in a dynamic perspective, the decrease of rural labor, which was led by Chinas rapid urbanization, promoted agricultural mechanization. (3) As the economy grew, the competitive relation between urbanization and agricultural mechanization in the short run eased, so did the promotion effect in the dynamic view. This paper provided an industrial interaction point of view to study the relation between current rural vitalization strategy and urbanization strategy.