财政纵向失衡、公共支出结构与经济增长*
FINANCIAL VERTICAL IMBALANCE, PUBLIC EXPENDITURE STRUCTURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

摘要 全面深化财税体制改革释放体制红利是助推地方经济增长与民生福祉增进的关键所在。为此，本文首先从理论层面系统诠释财政纵向失衡对经济增长的作用机制，继而通过构建动态面板联立方程模型将财政纵向失衡、公共支出结构与经济增长同时纳入分析框架，实证探究财政纵向失衡对地方经济增长的影响效应，而后通过进一步标准化回归估计考察财政纵向失衡对经济增长的作用渠道与传导效应。研究发现财政纵向失衡不仅通过直接作用渠道显著降低经济增长，还通过作用于地方政府公共支出结构间接对经济增长产生负向抑制效应。
Abstract： Deepening the fiscal and taxation system reform and releasing the system dividend is the key to boosting local economic growth and the improvement of peoples livelihood. This paper first systematically interprets the mechanism of the vertical imbalance of finance on economic growth, and then constructs the dynamic panel simultaneous equation model to integrate the vertical fiscal imbalance, public expenditure structure and economic growth into the analytical framework, and empirically explores the impact of vertical financial imbalance on local economic growth, and then through further standardized regression estimates to examine the role of fiscal vertical imbalances in economic growth channels and transmission effects. The study finds that fiscal vertical imbalance not only significantly reduces economic growth through direct channels of action, but also indirectly exerts a negative inhibitory effect on economic growth through the role of local government public expenditure structure.