区域发展战略能促进经济增长吗*——以振兴东北老工业基地战略为例
DOES REGIONAL DEVELOPING STRATEGY PROMOTE ECONOMIC GROWTH——Evidence from Revitalizing the Northeast Traditional Industrial Base

摘要 为了验证区域发展战略能否促进经济增长，笔者利用2003年实施的振兴东北老工业基地战略作为准自然实验，实证评估了该战略对促进东北地区经济增长的净效应。笔者引入项目评估计量经济学中的合成控制法控制了选择性偏差和由此导致的内生性问题。实证结果表明，振兴东北老工业基地战略的实施，使得东北三省2003年以来的年均经济增长率增加了11个百分点~16个百分点，但自2007年以来该战略的经济增长效应呈递减趋势。进一步分析发现，振兴东北老工业基地战略的经济增长效应，主要是通过增加投资和政府支出、改善基础设施实现的, 人力资本积累、科技进步和投资环境并未改善，产业结构和所有制结构虽有改善但作用有限。因此，这种增长效应容易受到经济周期的冲击而缺乏可持续性。进一步深化东北振兴战略，需要调整对东北地区政策扶持的方向、方式和对象。
Abstract： This paper employs the strategy of revitalizing the northeast traditional industrial base as a natural experiment to evaluate its growth effect and sustainability. Using the synthetic control method, we overcome the endogenous policy and the bias problem of sample selection. We show that the policy had raised the annual real GDP growth in northeast region by about 11%-16%, but only temporarily. The mechanism to accelerate the economic growth of the policy is mainly the input of physical capital, especially infrastructure. The human capital, technical progress and the investment environment in northeast region is not improved. The industrial and ownership structure is only improved limitedly. This paper suggests that in the process of the further northeast development program, the government is supposed to increase the input of human capital, innovation and investment environment, reduce the ownership discrimination.