土地承载力与经济发展的动态效应和耦合协调*——基于京津冀城市群的实证研究
THE DYNAMIC EFFECT AND COUPLING COORDINATION OF LAND CARRYING CAPACITY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT——An Empirical Study Based on BeijingTianjinHebei Urban Agglomeration#br#

摘要 本文运用2000—2014年京津冀城市群面板数据，构建土地综合承载力与区域经济发展的PVAR模型，分析土地综合承载力、人均GDP、地均第二、第三产业增加值之间的动态影响效应；构建两者的耦合协调评价模型，实证解析土地综合承载力与区域经济发展的耦合协调程度。结果表明：（1）土地潜在综合承载力的挖掘能促进区域经济发展的水平增加和结构优化；（2）土地综合承载力、人均GDP、地均第二、第三产业增加值波动均受其自身变动冲击的影响最大；（3）两者的耦合协调度较低，从中度失调向轻度失调，再向勉强协调，然后向中度协调过渡。
Abstract： Using panel data of BeijingTianjinHebei urban agglomeration from 2000 to 2014, this paper constructs a PVAR model of land comprehensive carrying capacity and regional economic development and analyzes the dynamic effect among land comprehensive carrying capacity, per capita GDP and added value of the secondary and tertiary industries on per unit land area. This paper also constructs the coupling coordination evaluation model to analyze the coupling coordination degree between land comprehensive carrying capacity and regional economic development. The results show that: (1)The excavation of potential land comprehensive carrying capacity can increase the level and promote the structural optimization of regional economic development. (2)The fluctuations of land comprehensive carrying capacity, per capita GDP, added value of the secondary and tertiary industries on per unit land area are most affected by the impacts of their own fluctuations. (3)The coupling coordination degrees are low, which are from a moderate disorder to a mild disorder, to the reluctant coordination, and then to moderate coordination.