创新、产业结构与经济增长的 门槛效应分析*
THE THRESHOLD EFFECTS ANALYSIS OF INNOVATION, INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

摘要 本文利用汉森（Hansen）门槛回归分析的方法，从R&D强度、产业结构两个角度研究了1978—2012年我国R&D投入增长与经济增长之间的阶段性变化特点。实证结果显示，当R&D强度越过门槛后，R&D资本增长对经济增长的作用在不断加强；当工业占GDP比重越过门槛后，R&D资本增长对经济增长的作用由不显著转变为显著为正；但当第三产业占GDP比重越过门槛后，R&D资本增长对经济增长的作用却由显著为正转变为不显著。
Abstract： This paper uses the threshold regression method by Hansen (2000) to measure the threshold effects of R&D investment and economic growth from the perspective of R&D intensity and industrial structure between 1978 and 2012. This analysis shows there are regimeswitching. With the R&D intensity increasing, the effect of R&D investment on economic growth is stronger and stronger. With the proportion of industry in GDP increasing, the effect becomes from nonsignificant to significant. However, with the proportion of the third industry in GDP increasing, the effect becomes from significant to nonsignificant.