中国工业增长的动力分析：规模还是结构*
ANALYSIS OF DRIVING FORCE OF CHINESE INDUSTRYS GROWTH: SCALE OR STRUCTURE

摘要 本文以35个主要工业行业为对象，实证分析了1991—2014年中国工业增长的动力演变过程。研究表明，规模和结构是中国工业增长的主要动力因素。规模因素对工业增长的贡献始终较大，并且资本要素的规模变动效应明显超过劳动要素，而结构因素对工业增长的贡献较低。工业内部的集中度在逐渐提高，工业增加值排名前十位的行业，转向技术密集型为主的行业，反映了中国工业正处在转型升级过程中。
Abstract： Taking 35 major industrial subsectors as an example,this paper empirically analyzes the dynamic evolution process of Chinas industrial growth during 1991 to 2004The research has shown that scale and structure are two main driving forces of Chinas industrial growthThe contribution of scale is always very large,and the scale change effect of capital is bigger than the scale change effect of laborThe contribution of structure factor is relatively lowThe concentration of industry is gradually increased,and the topten subsectors which were ranked by their industrial added value have turned to technology intensive industries,and this reflects Chinas industry is in the process of transformation and upgrading