京津冀人口与产业空间演变及相互关系*——兼论产业疏解可否调控北京人口
THE SPATIAL EVOLUTION AND RELATIONSHIP OF POPULATION AND INDUSTRIES IN BEIJINGTIANJINHEBEI MEGACITY REGION——Whether Industry Decentralization Can Regulate Population in Beijing#br#

摘要 本文利用空间分析方法，计算了京津冀地区2000—2014年人口与各产业重心的变动，以及2014年人口与各产业的局部空间自相关状况；使用人口产业弹性系数的概念及方法，对京津冀各地区的该系数值做了分析与评价。研究结论表明，京津冀地区人口分布与第三产业的分布状况最为接近，北京人口分布与第三产业密切相关；由于京津地区人口产业弹性较河北地区更低，表明产业疏解所带动的人口疏解效果较为有限。研究结论的启示是，北京市人口调控应将产业疏解与产业升级相结合，并与其他措施多管齐下。
Abstract： Based on spatial analysis method，this paper calculated the shift of gravity centers of population and industries in BeijingTianjinHebei Megacity region from 2000 to 2014，with the spatial autocorrelation in 2014By using the populationindustry elasticity coefficient，this paper also analyzed and evaluated the coefficient in this regionThe results showed that the population had the most similar distribution pattern with tertiary industry，and the population distribution in Beijing was closely related to tertiary industryThe value of populationindustry elasticity coefficient in Beijing and Tianjin was lower than that in Hebei province，indicating that the population decentralization effect driven by industrial decentralization was very limitedIn conclusion，in order to regulate the population in Beijing，not only should decentralization and upgrading of industry be combined，but many other auxiliary measures are also needed