控风险与稳增长挤压下的中国货币政策*
MONETARY POLICY WITH DUAL TARGETS OF STABILIZING GROWTH AND PREVENTING RISK UNDER NEW NORMAL IN CHINA

摘要 当前“名稳实紧”的货币政策已经不能适应我国宏观经济现状，货币政策总体思路亟待调整。过高的债务率所导致的债务—紧缩效应以及目前市场上所采取的“杠杆率硬着陆”的方式不仅加剧了金融市场的潜在系统性风险，而且还导致货币政策陷入传导困境。金融市场上财务软约束、刚性兑付现象大量存在，抬高了无风险利率，而且导致市场丧失风险定价功能。基于上述分析，我们认为当前货币政策取向应该从“名稳实紧”调整为“适度宽松”。在“杠杆率软着陆”的思路下，通过创新货币政策目标，配合市场化改革，尝试探索新型货币政策工具并结合市场监管体系的完善，早日实现经济复苏。
Abstract： The debtdeflation effects under the present high leverage ratio situation in China not only aggregate the potential systematic financial risk but also decrease the efficiency of monetary policy. Moreover, soft budget constraint and absolute no risk return in financial market increase the no risk interest rate and increase the difficulties and costs of loan borrowing of small and middle sized enterprises. Under this circumstance, it is proper to decrease the leverage ratio by increasing the net assets through expansionary monetary policies. So, with the help of market reform, the shift of the present tightening monetary policy to the expansionary one will fulfill the dual targets of stabilizing growth and preventing risk under New Normal.