房价、土地财政与城镇化协调发展关系*——基于空间经济学视角
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HOUSING PRICE, LAND FINANCE AND URBANIZATION COORDINATED DEVELOPMENT——Based on the Perspective of Spatial Economics

摘要 本文基于中国2004—2013年289个地级市面板数据，从空间经济学视角探究房价、土地财政与城镇化三者关系，通过理论与实证检验发现：第一，中国房价有利于促进土地城镇化发展，却抑制人口城镇化发展，而土地财政是地方政府实行“摊大饼式”城镇化发展的根源；第二，2004—2013年289个地级市人口与土地城镇化发展大部分处于不协调状态，即人口城镇化远滞后于土地城镇化；第三，2004—2013年各地级市房价、土地财政、人口城镇化、土地城镇化及人口与土地城镇化协调指数之间存在正的空间相关性；第四，基于地理距离、地理相邻与经济距离权重，利用静态SDM模型实证检验发现，商品房价格与土地财政收入水平越高，越不利于人口与土地城镇化协调发展。
Abstract： The paper based on Chinese 289 prefecturelevel cities panel data between 2004 and 2013, from spatial economics perspective to discuss the relationship between housing price, land finance and urbanization. Through theoretical and empirical analysis found following conclusions. First, housing price is helpful to promote the development of land urbanization, but inhibit the development of population urbanization, then land finance is the source why local government to implement “spread pie” urbanization. Second, the population urbanization and land urbanization coordination index is uncoordinated in Chinese 289 prefecturelevel cities between 2004 and 2013, population urbanization was far lagged behind land urbanization. Third, housing price, land finance, population urbanization and land urbanization had a positive spatial correlation between 2004 and 2013. Finally, based on based on geographical distance, geographical neighboring and economic distance weight, through the static SDM model to empirical analyze found that the higher housing price and land finance, the more disadvantageous is to population urbanization and land urbanization coordinated development.