食品价格冲击对核心CPI的传递效应*——基于3种核心CPI的比较研究
THE PASSTHROUGH EFFECT OF THE FOOD PRICE SHOCKS ON CORE CPI——The Comparative Research of Three Kinds of Core CPI

摘要 本文利用2001—2015年的月度数据，在计算多种核心CPI的基础上，实证分析了食品价格冲击对核心CPI的传递效应。本文研究发现，我国食品CPI存在高惯性特征，其对核心CPI具有较大的冲击作用，长期传递系数为0140；这种传递效应在2008年12月前后存在内生性结构突变，突变前后两阶段的长期传递系数分别为0186和0097；虽然2008年12月以后食品价格对核心CPI的冲击下降幅度较大，但长期传递系数仍具有明显的上升趋势。这些结果表明，食品价格冲击已经显著影响我国通货膨胀的持续性成分，我国货币政策应重视食品价格冲击带来的传递效应；尽管我国政策调整的作用有所显现，但是稳定物价的压力依然很大。
Abstract： Based on the calculation of several core CPI，in this paper we analyze the passthrough effect of food price shocks on core CPI during 2001 to 2015The results show，food CPI has high inertia characteristics，which has great impact on core CPI，and the longterm passthrough coefficient is 0140After considering the endogenous structural breaks，we find the longterm passthrough coefficient of core CPI still reach to 0186 and 0097，before and after the break of December 2008 respectivelyAlthough the impact of food prices on the core CPI decreased greatly after December 2008，the longterm passthrough coefficient remains significantly increasedThese results suggest that the food price shocks have a significant impact on the persistent component of Chinas inflation，and the monetary policy should pay attention to the passthrough effect of food price shocksAlthough the policy adjustment effects have appeared，the stable price pressures are still strong