贸易自由化与增加值贸易*——WTO对中国出口的真实影响
TRADE LIBERALIZATION AND VALUEADDED TRADE——The Effect of WTO Membership on Chinas Exports

摘要 国际贸易的中间品贸易的兴起，使传统关境贸易统计无法准确衡量全球价值链下一国的实际贸易利得。本文基于增加值贸易视角重新评估加入WTO对于中国出口的真实影响，以及关境统计下WTO贸易促进作用与真实状况的偏离。基于引力模型的实证结果表明：（1）总体上，中国加入WTO显著促进其增加值出口，但关境统计明显高估了WTO贸易促进作用。（2）分行业看，WTO对中国增加值出口的贸易促进作用存在显著的行业差异：加入WTO显著地促进了中国非制造业工业、制造业和服务业增加值出口，却抑制了中国农林牧渔业的增加值出口。（3）进一步研究发现，关境统计数据对于WTO贸易促进作用的高估问题仅存在于制造业，对于农林牧渔业等其他三个行业反而存在低估问题。
Abstract： Rapid growth in crossborder intermediate goods trade has made the traditional statistics on gross volume seriously mismeasuring a countrys gains from trade in the global value chainThis study assess the effect of WTO on Chinas exports with new data on trade in value added and compare how trade liberalization affects Chinas gross exports and value added exports differentlyUsing a properly specified gravity model,we obtain more reliable estimation of accession effectsFirst,Chinas access to the WTO has promoted its aggregate exports,but the gross bilateral trade statistics overstate the WTO tradepromoting effectsSecond,the effects of the WTO on Chinas exports vary across sectors,which are strong and positive for nonmanufacturing,manufacturing and services,but strong and negative for agriculture,forestry,and fishingFinally,at the sector level,manufacturing is the only one in which the gross trade statistics overstate the impact of WTO membership,while,for other three are underestimated