城镇化会增加居民能源需求吗——基于事实与文献的述评*
WILL URBANIZATION INCREASE RESIDENTIAL ENERGY DEMAND——A Literature Review

摘要 城市消耗了中国70%的能源总量，新型城镇化发展要求实现“高城镇化、低能源消耗”。未来的城镇化是否会推高居民能源需求？以往观点往往得出肯定的结论。本文基于典型事实和逻辑推理对此提出质疑，分别对基于“自上而下”和 “自下而上”视角的两类文献进行了综述和比较，并构建了一个融合两种研究视角的传导机制分析框架。在系统总结现有文献的基础上，本文提出未来三个可创新的方向：首先是融合不同学科与视角，将微观居民的用能行为置于城镇化这一动态变迁中进行研究；其次是突破数据和研究方法局限，运用微观数据和实验性方法来科学识别相关性和因果性，并进行政策影响评估；最后是结合国际化视野和规范分析方法来研究中国城镇化中的能源、环境等本土问题，并凝练形成城镇低碳化发展的“中国模式”与“中国经验”。
Abstract： City is the major energy user and emission source in China, which accounts for 70% of total energy consumption To achieve the sustainable development, China need to further boost the urban development while lower the huge energy demand Will the accelerating urbanization process lead to higher energy demand? This issue raises intensive attention from the decisionmakers, public, and academic society Most previous studies concluded that the urbanization is positively associated with household energy demand However, the conclusion is based on aggregated data in a static framework Based on some observation worldwide and evidence among Chinas provinces, we question this point We intensively screen the literature and classify them into “topdown” and “bottomup” perspective We conclude that there are three research areas need to be further enhanced First, it is necessary to combine different viewpoints and examine the decisionmakers response to the dynamic change result from the urbanization Second, the microlevel data and experimental methods are needed for causal inference and policy assessment Third, scholars suggest to study Chinas case using modern analytical methods and to summarize the general experience to form the “Chinese pattern”.