中国人口吸烟模式的队列差异及社会决定因素
Cohort Differences of Smoking Pattern in Chinese Population and Its Social Determinants

摘要 文章运用2010 年全球成人烟草调查中国数据，在重构个人吸烟史的基础上，再现了出生队列吸烟率的变动过程，并运用生命表技术调整了死亡率对队列吸烟史的影响。结果表明，中国男性的吸烟率持续上升并在达到历史高位后开始出现下降趋势。但不同出生队列的吸烟模式存在队列差异，年长出生队列的吸烟率、峰值吸烟率及其持续时间均高于年轻队列，且这些指标都随队列的年轻化呈现出下降趋势。吸烟行为的社会决定因素及其转变是造成中国人口吸烟模式队列差异的主要原因。因此，在未来的烟草控制策略的制定和实施过程中，应当重视和把握人口变动的规律和吸烟模式的队列差异，对于不同的出生队列有针对性地采取差异化策略。
Abstract：Drawing upon data from Global Adult Tobacco Survey － 2010 China，this paper reconstructs the smoking history of different birth cohorts by using life table techniques to adjust the impact of mortality onsmoking prevalence． Smoking prevalence of Chinese male population was increasing until the late 1990s when it began to decline after arriving its historical peak，and there are marked cohort differences in smoking pattern． Smoking prevalence，the peak prevalence and smoking duration of older birth cohorts are higher than those of the younger cohorts，and all of these indicators become increasingly lower among the increasingly younger cohorts． Changing social determinants of smoking are the main causes of cohort differences in smoking． Thus smoking control strategies need to take into account population change dynamics and cohort differences of smoking pattern，adapting different strategies for different cohorts．