人口规模、消费结构和环境效率
Population Size，Consumption Structure and Environmental Efficiency

摘要 人口规模的扩大和消费结构的转型是影响国民经济发展和资源永续利用的关键因素。文章通过超效率 DEA 方法测得环境效率，并基于STIＲPAT 模型实证分析我国人口规模、消费结构对环境效率的影响。研究结果表明: 2000 ～ 2013 年间全国各省环境效率整体呈现波动下降的趋势，区域差异较大。对于人口基数庞大的中国，现阶段人口规模的扩大对环境效率有着负向影响，消费结构作为人口与环境作用过程中的关键中间变量，根据不同的类型与环境效率之间呈现出不同的关系。具体来看，生存、享受型消费与环境效率呈现“U 型”关系，拐点分别为 60．18% 与 29．20%，发展型消费与环境效率呈现线性正相关关系。并且随着消费结构的升级，人口规模对环境效率的不利影响将得到明显的改善。
Abstract：The expanding population and the transformation of consumption structure are the key factors that affect the sustainable development of national economy and the sustainable use of re- sources in an all-round way．This paper measures the environmental efficiency by super-efficiency DEA method，and studies the impact of population size and consumption structure on environmental efficiency based on the STIRPAT model．The results show that from 2000 to 2013，the environmental efficiency of China's provinces demonstrated a declining trend of volatility with large regional differences．At this stage，the expansion of the population size has a negative impact on the environmental efficiency in China．Meanwhile，consumption structure，as an important intermediate variable linking population and environment，shows different relationship patterns with environmental efficiency according to different types of consumption structure．Specifically，the relationship between subsistence and enjoyment consumption with the environmental efficiency has a u-shape，the inflection points of which are 60． 18% and 29. 20% ， while the relationship between development consumption and the environmental efficiency shows a line- ar positive correlation．With the upgrade of consumption structure，the negative impact of population size on environmental efficiency will be altered．