老年人独立生活能力变化轨迹的个体和总体差异研究
Changes of the Independence in Daily Living at both the Population andthe Individual Levels among the Older Population in China

摘要 文章使用中国老年健康影响因素跟踪调查2002~2011年数据，分析老年人独立生活能力在个体和总体层面的不同的变化轨迹，并通过分解分析揭示了死亡选择性在其中的作用。研究发现，独立生活能力较差的老人更易受到死亡选择性的影响而较早地离开队列，留下独立生活能力较强的老人，使得老年人的独立生活能力在总体层面的下降较为缓慢；但是对存活者个体来说，他们独立生活能力的衰退快速得多。个体-总体差异具有明显的队列效应，较年长队列的独立生活能力的总体-个体变化的差异较大，而较年轻队列的差异则较小。老年人独立生活能力在总体层面的缓慢下降对正经历着快速老龄化的中国来说是利好，但在个体层面上的快速衰退对老年人及其家庭而言则是巨大挑战。
Abstract：Based on the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Study (CLHLS 2002~2011),this study assesses the age trajectories of the loss of independence in daily living for five cohorts aged 65~69,70~79,80~89,90~99 and 100+ at the 2002 survey,respectively,both at the individual and the population level.Results show that the decline of independence at the population level is more gradual than that at the individual level.A decomposition analysis further reveals that the difference in the pace of decline of independence can be largely attributed to selective mortality and loss to follow up.Moreover,such difference varies across cohorts.For the population as a whole,a longer life expectancy does not necessarily result in a rapid decline of independence.For individuals, however, prolonging lifespan tend to be accompanied with deterioration of independence except for the young old.