全面两孩政策下的目标人群及新增出生人口估计（翟振武 李龙 陈佳鞠）
Accumulated Couples and Extra Births under the Universal Two-Child Policy

摘要 实施全面两孩政策后,符合政策的目标人群有多少?短期内会新增多少出生人口?这是值得关注的问题。文章基于2014年全国1‰人口变动情况抽样调查等人口统计数据,使用分人群分要素回推预测方法,测算从2016年开始全面放开二孩生育将会形成的目标人群以及由此产生的新增出生人口。分析显示:2016年全面两孩政策的目标人群约为9101.0万人,其中40岁及以上的占49.6%;在中方案下,2017~2021年将会累计新增出生人口1719.5万人,年度新增出生人口数量在160~470万人。虽然全面两孩政策目标人群规模十分庞大,但其新增出生人口数量却相对有限,中国能够平稳有序地度过全面两孩政策累积生育势能的释放期。
Abstract： The numbers of accumulated couples and their extra births are major concerns after im- plementing the universal two-child policy．Using data from the 2014 national population sampling sur- vey，this paper，employing a population group-component calculation and projection method，provides estimates of the size of extra births that would be influenced by the two-child policy after computing the amount of accumulated couples in 2016．The results show that the number of target population under the two-child policy would be at around 91 million in 2016 among which women at age 40 and above account for 49． 6% ．Under medium fertility scenario，the size of extra births would reach around 17 mil- lion in 2017－2021 with an annual average number of 1．6－4． 7 million．Although the number of accu- mulated couples subject to the two-child policy is large，the size of their extra births would be relatively small，implying that China would have a smooth transition to the two-child policy．