老龄化背景下中国劳动供给变动及其经济影响
Implications of Population Aging for Labor Supply and Economic Growth in China: A CGE Analysis

摘要 文章研究老龄化背景下中国未来劳动供给的变动趋势及其经济影响。基于可计算一般均衡( CGE) 模型，将不同年龄劳动者在劳动效率方面的差异纳入劳动供给要素的考察范围，定量评估人口规模与年龄结构、劳动参与率与劳动力总量、有效劳动总量的变动趋势及其对劳动力要素价格、经济产出及产业结构变动的影响。结果表明，中国有效劳动供给在达到峰值后的降速将快于人口总量和劳动力总量的变动，且更具波动性; 在以有效劳动衡量劳动供给变动的模拟情景下，21 世纪上半叶中国 GDP 增长率的降速将快于只考虑人口总量或劳动力总量变动的情景; 若只考虑劳动年龄人口变动对劳动供给的影响，而忽视不同年龄劳动者在劳动效率方面的异质性，则有可能低估未来经济增长。
Abstract：This paper investigates the implications of population aging for labor supply and economic growth in future China. We particularly introduce an indicator of labor supply-effective labor-which takes into account the differences on labor productivity across age groups. Based on a Computable General Equilibrium ( CGE) model，we simulate four scenarios with various labor supply assumptions，and compare their effects on the change of factor labor price，economic output，and industrial structure. Our results show that total effective labor supply in China is expected to peak in 2017 and then start to decline. The falling speed would be faster and more volatile than that of total population and total labor force. In the scenario of effective labor supply，the growth rate of GDP in China in the first half of this century will decline faster and fluctuate greater than that in the other scenarios where labor supply is assumed to be affected by the development of total population or total labor force. If labor supply is assumed to be determined only by the dynamics of working-age population，the future economic growth may be underestimated. Our study suggests that the heterogeneity of labor efficiency of age groups should not be neglected when we assess labor supply，such that we can avoid misjudging future economic growth and industrial structure change.