全面两孩政策背景下中国城市女性的生育偏好和生育计划
Women’s Fertility Preference and Intention in Urban China: An Empirical Study on the Nationwide Two-Child Policy

摘要 文章利用2016年全国6省12市生育调查数据,分析中国城市家庭已婚已育一孩妇女的生育偏好与生育计划及其影响因素,结果发现:有24.4%的人计划生育二孩并且有明确的时间安排,有5.1%的人计划生育二孩但没有时间安排。生育偏好受个体家庭生活和成长环境的影响,跟公婆居住、有兄弟姐妹的女性更可能有二孩偏好,但这些因素并不对生育计划产生影响;现实两大限制因素——经济成本和照料压力影响生育二孩的计划,但并不对生育偏好产生影响;男孩偏好是一种现实促进因素,第一个孩子是女孩的女性更可能有生育第二个孩子的计划;生育计划和生育偏好之间的偏离也主要受到现实因素(年龄、家庭收入、照料可获得性、性别偏好)的影响。
Abstract：Using the 2016 fertility survey data from 12 cities in 6 provinces of urban China，this study empirically investigates family size desire，second childbearing intention and their determinants for married women who have already given birth to one child．We find that 24.4% of women have a timetable plan for the birth of a second child，while 5.1% of women have intention but no timetable．Family backgrounds such as the number of siblings and whether a woman coresides with her parents-in-law have significant impact on the family size desire but are insignificantly associated with the second child- bearing intention．In contrast，financial and care burdens significantly affect women’s second child- bearing intention but are insignificantly associated with the family size desire．Sex preferences exist，meaning that women’s second childbearing intention is higher for those whose first child is a girl．Finally，the gap between women’s family size desire and second childbearing intention is mainly driven by practical factors such as women’s age，family’s financial status，care burdens and son preference．