中国老年人的空巢时间有多长?
Empty-Nest Life Expectancy of the Chinese Elderly: A Multi-State Life Table Analysis

摘要 在中国人口老龄化过程中，随着空巢老人比重的持续上升，老年人在空巢状态度过的时间也在不断延长。文章使用中国健康与养老追踪调查( CHARLS)2011、2013 年的数据和多状态生命表法，估计 60 岁及以上老年人的预期寿命和空巢预期寿命， 及其性别、城乡和受教育程度差异。结果表明，中国老年人整个老年期中超过一半的余寿都处在空巢状态; 女性老年人的空巢预期寿命高于男性老年人; 农村老年人的空巢预期寿命高于城市老年人; 而受教育水平越高， 老年人空巢预期寿命也越长。另外，老年人的空巢预期寿命与他们当前所处居住状态有很大关系,当前处在空巢状态的老年人的空巢预期寿命及其占余寿比重都远远高于处于非空巢状态的老年人。
Abstract： The past two decades have witnessed substantial growth in the elderly population living in empty- nest families in China， with lengthening years they spent in empty- nest status．However， studies of the empty- nest life expectancy of elderly in China are rare．Using data from China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHAR LS) 2011 to 2013 and multi- state life table method， this research produces estimates of the life expectancy of older people aged over 60 and their empty- nest life expectancy， and examines the differentials according to gender， residence and educational level， both population- based and state- based． The results show that， elderly in China spend over a half of their remaining life in empty- nest status; female elderly and the elderly in rural areas have higher empty- nest life expectancy than their counterparts respectively; and the higher the level of education of the elderly， the longer their empty- nest life expectancy． Initial living arrangements of the elderly have major impact on their empty- nest life expectancy． These results apparently have important policy implications．