中国经济社会发展与生育水平变动关系再探索
Re-examining China's Provincial Socioeconomic Development and Fertility Change

摘要 文章利用 1982、1990、2000、2010 年 4 次中国人口普查计算数据和学者调整数据,考 察中国各省、自治区、直辖市(本文简称各省(区、市)) TFR 和相应年份 HDI 之间的关系,发现各省 (区、市)HDI 迅速提高、地区差异不断缩小,TFR 不断下降、地区差异也不断缩小,HDI 与 TFR 呈现负 向关系,且这种经济社会发展对生育水平的抑制作用在逐渐降低。 进一步将各省(区、市)按生育政策 类型划分后,各类地区两变量依然呈负相关,并未出现尾部上翘或呈“反 J 型”,尽管上海、北京、天津 市在 2010 年的 HDI 已经达到 0. 788 以上的极高人类发展水平。 中国目前尚未达到类似西方部分发 达国家生育水平随经济社会发展自动回升的阶段。 如果政策不调整,全国各省(区、市)生育水平随经 济社会发展还会继续下降,尚未触底,及时放开政策能有效抑制 TFR 进一步下降。
Abstract：This study explores the relationship between China??s provincial total fertility rate(TFR) calculated from census data and adjusted by scholars in 1982,1990,2000 and 2010 and the provincial human development index (HDI). China experienced rapid increase in the HDI and continuous decrease in the TFR at all provinces and shrinking regional disparities in both of them. The two variables are negatively correlated while the inhibition effect of HDI on TFR is gradually decreased. After dividing regions by different policy types,we find that the two still have negative correlation and without Showing a J-shape relation in different category of regions,although Shanghai,Beijing and Tianjin have reached the very high human development level which exceeds 0. 788 in 2010. Unlike some western developed countries,China??s fertility level does not turn to rise with the socioeconomic development. Without adjusting fertility policy,the fertility level of all the provinces would continue declining with the socioeconomic development. A timely releasing of fertility policy can effectively restrain further decline of TFR