2015 ～ 2100 年中国人口与老龄化变动趋势
Future Trends of China's Population and Aging:2015 ～2100

摘要 全面两孩政策的实施将对未来中国人口与老龄化变动趋势产生深远的影响，文章在 充分考虑生育政策调整影响的基础上，依托 2015 年 1%人口抽样调查数据对中国 2015 ～2100 年的人 口规模和结构的变动趋势进行预测分析。结果显示: 中国总人口规模将于 2029 年左右迎来峰值，此 后将步入负增长时期，整个人口的年龄结构将不断老化; 劳动年龄人口规模将处于持续缩减之中，劳 动年龄人口比例在21 世纪前半叶将快速下降、后半叶则将在波动中缓慢下降; 老年人口规模将不断 攀升，于 2053 年左右达到峰值，此后将开始逐年下降，老龄化程度在 21 世纪前半叶将快速提升，但到 了 21 世纪后半叶，老龄化进程将逐渐放缓。
Abstract： The implementation of the universal two-child policy will have a profound influence on China's future trends of population and changing path of aging. Using data from the 1% population sampling survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics in 2015，this paper conducts simulations of the size and structure of China's population over the years 2015-2100 by taking into account the potential demographic impacts of the fertility policy adjustment. The results show that China's total popula- tion will grow to the peak in around 2029 and then enter the era of negative population growth; China's population structure will be aging with shrinking working-age population size and expanding elderly population size; the speed of the decline in China's proportion of working-age population will be fast before 2050 and slow with fluctuations after 2050; China's size of elderly population will peak in around 2053 and then gradually begin declining; China will experience a rapid increase in proportion of elderly population before 2050 and the pace of population aging will slow down after 2050.