人口年龄结构变化对经济增长的影响研究
The Effects of Changing Age Structure on Economic Growth

摘要 文章利用中国 1987 ～2015 年人口普查数据研究人口年龄结构变化对经济增长的影 响。首先分别考察劳动年龄人口规模和劳动年龄人口内部结构变化对经济增长的作用，结果显示: 劳 动年龄人口比重每增加1 个百分点，实际人均 GDP 增加 1. 9%，劳动年龄人口中最具生产力劳动力比 例每增加 1 个百分点，实际人均 GDP 增加 1. 7%; 其次，测算人口年龄结构变化对经济增长的贡献，结 果显示:1987 ～2015 年人口年龄结构变化对中国经济增长的贡献达到 14. 69%，同时预测结果表明 2015 ～2020 年间中国人口红利窗口将会关闭; 再次，利用分解分析研究人口结构变化对经济增长的影响机制，发现人口年龄结构变化主要通过提高生产要素的使用效率、提升人力资本水平以及增加就业来促进经济增长。
Abstract：Using the 1987-2015 census data of China，this paper studies the effects of changes in de- mographic age structure on economic growth. We use fixed effect models for panel data to investigate the impact of size and age composition of working-age population on economic growth. The result shows that one percentage-point increase in the working-age population ratio would lead to a 1. 9% increase in GDP per capita，and one percentage-point increase in the share of the population at prime ages lead to a 1. 7% increase in GDP per capita. Estimating the contribution of changes in age structure to China's eco- nomic growth，the result suggests that during the 1987-2015 period，changes in age structure contribute to 14. 69% of China's economic growth. It is forecasted that China's demographic dividend window would be closed during the period of 2015-2020. Finally，we decompose the effect of changes in age structure on economic growth，demonstrating that age structure affects economic growth mainly through the improve- ment of the efficiency of production factors，the accumulation of human capital，and the enhancement of employment.