中国各省离婚率的空间聚集及时空格局演变分析
Spatial Aggregation and Spatial-Temporal Pattern of Provincial Divorce Rate in China

摘要 离婚率的上升既有深刻社会背景和时代背景，也凸显了现阶段人们价值观的变化。文章在对离婚率的区域差异性、空间聚集性分析的基础上，针对中国离婚问题的区域特性和时空特征进行统计分析，揭示中国离婚问题的空间演变规律。研究发现: 中国各省级行政区离婚率的高、低在空间上呈现出非随机分布; 从全局来看，中国各省离婚率一直存在高—高型聚集或低—低型聚集; 从各省离婚率的局部聚集特征可以看出，高—高型主要集中在东北3 省，低—低型主要集中在我国南部及东南沿海等省份; 2004 ～ 2012 年间，离婚率属于高—高型且显著的热点地区逐渐集中在黑龙江、辽宁、吉林，离婚率属于低—低型且显著的冷点地区从6 个减少到只剩1 个。
Abstract： The rising divorce rate has profound social and historical background in China，highlighting the changes in the values of people at this stage．To reveal the pattern of spatial-temporal evolution of Chinese divorce rate，this paper conducts a statistical analysis of regional and spatial-temporal characteristics of the changes in divorce rate at the provincial level． The divorce rate of each province in China has a non-random distribution in space，showing a significant positive spatial aggregation in China’s provinces with highhigh or low-low clustering characteristic． Looking at the characteristics of local aggregation in different provinces，the high-high clustering occurs mainly in provinces including Heilongjiang，Liaoning and Jilin，while the low-low pattern mainly in Hainan，Henan，Guangdong，Guangxi，Jiangxi，Anhui，Shandong and other south-east provinces．