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- 2018
面向应急决策的突发事件情景模型
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Abstract:
为了对灾情建立结构化和量化的表达，增强基于情景的灾情认知的有效性，该文从应急决策的需求出发，建立了多维情景模型。该模型由4部分组成：情景对象表达、灾情向量、情景环境和情景对策。其中：情景对象表达和灾情向量是情景的内核，是对灾情自身特性的定性半定量表达；情景环境和情景对策是对环境、应急资源和应急响应对策的结构化描述。给出了模型形式化的数学描述，并通过实例分析对该模型进行了验证。该情景模型能够辅助决策者建立内涵清晰的突发事件情景，实现高度结构化和量化的灾情表达，从而使决策者进行更加科学合理的灾情严重度评估。
Abstract：This paper presents a disaster scenario model that gives a structured, quantitative picture of the disaster status to improve situation awareness during a disaster. A multi-dimensional scenario model is developed for emergency decision-making. The scenario model includes object representations, disaster status vectors, the scenario context and a scenario solution. The object representations and disaster status vectors are the core of the scenario model as qualitive and semi-quantitative representations of the disaster status. The scenario context and scenario solution are structural descriptions of the disaster environment, response resources and emergency response actions. Mathematical definitions and formulations of the scenario model are given with an example to demonstrate the model effectiveness. This model defines the scenario with the disaster status represented by a structured, quantitative model. The model can be used to evaluate the emergency severity for decision-making.
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